A guess at what to expect from Mark Parsons in 2023
Washington's former head coach and GM returns as coach after six successful years with the Thorns and a stint with the Netherlands
I’ve gone back and forth on whether I should write this piece before or after the player preview series that will make up the majority of Spacing and the Spirit’s preseason content. On one hand, writing the player features first would establish the individuals who comprise the coaching staff’s options as they look to create a functional system in their first year leading the Spirit. On the other hand, writing a larger guess of a tactical preview first would help sketch out a bigger picture and allow me to lean on a projected structure as I preview what to expect from players this season. Both options have upsides and downsides, but I’ve decided to write this overarching preview now and I’ll try my best not to clog it up with too much unnecessary deep-diving into individual members of the squad.
Parsons’ history and what it could mean for 2023
As with many head coaching changes, Mark Parsons’ return to the Spirit makes it difficult to say how this team will attempt to play come March 26th against OL Reign. Fortunately, we can look at Parsons’ past work to see what he might want to do in DC. Although his last job was as manager of the Dutch national team between September 2021 and August 2022, international and club management are two vastly different tasks. While there are many things that make them different, the most important in my view are the amount of training time a coach is given with their players and the rigidity of the personnel in the international game.
In terms of training time - the big effect is that club coaches have much more time to work with their squads and implement complex tactical ideas and schemes. Because of this, international coaching is more about player-management - as long as players are content enough, talent often wins out. Managing relationships is still important at the club level, of course, but Xs and Os coaching plays a much larger role in tandem with player ability.
And in terms of personnel - it’s simple. As the Dutch coach, Parsons had to use a system that attempted to suit the Dutch players. As a club coach — he can work with the front office to bring in players who fit his preferred system.
With that in mind, let's look past Parsons' time in the Netherlands to his last club job with the Portland Thorns from 2016 to 2021.Throughout those six seasons, his teams moved between a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3, and (less often) a 3-4-3, but he and his staff settled more often than not on a 4-3-3-based system in his final two seasons at Providence Park. For the sake of this exercise we are going to make the assumption that his 4-3-3 may represent a preferred shape, at least as he starts out.
I am using data from fbref.com as well as ~the eye test~ for this exercise, so Parsons’ use of formations like a 4-1-2-1-2 diamond or a 4-3-1-2 count - for our purposes, at least - as variants of a 4-3-3. Each of these three systems has its quirks, but each one starts with a back four, a three-player midfield (which can be configured in different ways but is often made up of a holding “six” and two more all-around-minded “eights” on either side), and an attacking trio.
Also - Parsons returns to the Spirit after a tough season for the team. I attribute some of that to coaching and executive level instability, and some of it to bad luck that some of this team’s ten(!!) draws did not turn into wins. Some of it, of course, does simply come down to player form. But even with some big names gone from last season, this is not an untalented team — so I’m not going to harp so much on last season’s struggles in this piece.
Which players will fit where in this system?
To start, let’s establish the must-start-if-healthy players in the squad right now, and in my opinion there are six: GK Aubrey Kingsbury, CB Sam Staab (the only Spirit player to play every regular season minute last season), MF Andi Sullivan, MF Ashley Sanchez, FW Trinity Rodman, and FW Ashley Hatch.
There would be seven, but the Spirit made the decision to trade defender and USWNT regular Emily Sonnett to OL Reign for the 32nd pick of that night’s 2023 NWSL Draft (which they then packaged with $30,000 in exchange for the 30th overall pick) and OL Reign’s 2024 1st round pick. Mark Parsons said the Spirit made the trade due to “structural problems” with the roster due to this summer’s World Cup since Sonnett was one of the Spirit’s five likely members of the squad the US will send to Australia and New Zealand this summer while the NWSL continues to play matches.
Parsons and the front office are not wrong that the Spirit will be without many of their best players during that period. Them and I simply have a difference of opinion of whether this solution was worth trading (when healthy) one of the team’s best players in her prime. But they get paid to do this, and if they get these draft picks right it may be a no-brainer in hindsight.
I do sympathize with the dilemma the Spirit faced because American soccer continues, mindbogglingly, to play through major international tournaments in the women’s and men’s games — an insane thing that makes me want to slam my forehead into a table every summer for a number of reasons. However — and without getting too bogged down in something I cannot change — I disagree with the decision. To give Parsons and Spirit general manager Mark Krikorian some amount of the benefit of the doubt, maybe they decided to trade Sonnett for strictly on-the-field reasons but chose to say what they did to the press out of respect to a player who helped bring a championship to DC.
Up top, Tara McKeown is the likely candidate to retain her position on the left wing alongside alongside Hatch and Rodman. McKeown could stand to add some more production to her game (17th %tile in npxG + xAG among attacking midfielders/wingers), but even if she does not, her off the ball work will complement the Spirit’s offensive star trio of Hatch, Rodman, and Sanchez once again. Among attacking midfielders/wingers, McKeown tackling and intercepting ranking in the 75th and 71st percentile respectively across the top 8 women’s leagues, and her ability to make forward runs and pester defenders will allow Rodman to roam more and the Spirit to make the most of their star’s abilities.
And in case you’ve (understandably) been distracted by Rodman’s offensive talents, the pair of her and McKeown on the wings will pose opposing players and coaches a nightmare in terms of how their build-up play and how they progress the ball. Because while McKeown is a safely above-average defensive attacking player, Rodman is as much of a dynamo when the Spirit are without the ball as she is when they have it. Ranking in the 94th and 98th percentile in tackles and interceptions among top 8 league attacking midfielders/wingers last season (over the past 365 days), Rodman is a player who is constantly working to help her team disrupt the opposition and trigger counter-attacks going the other way.
A secondary benefit to the McKeown/Rodman duo is that it helps balance the team when playing Sanchez in a midfield three - Sanchez is an energetic and valuable defensive player, but she is someone who wants to do her defending further forward as well as get forward offensively and influence the game in the final third.
With Sanchez sure to take her place as the most advanced member of a midfield three, one of the more interesting questions facing Parsons and his staff is that of who plays in midfield alongside her and Spirit captain Andi Sullivan. That’s because, while Sullivan is excellent in the holding “six” role she’s become accustomed to since she was drafted 1st overall by the Spirit in 2017 out of Stanford, but she is a player who is technically excellent and more than suited to play a little further forward. And I don’t know if this is what Krikorian and Parsons had in mind when making the signing of Inès Jaurena (a former player of Krikorian’s at FSU), but the addition of Jaurena from Lyon could allow for just that. Admittedly, the only footage I could find of Jaurena on Youtube was this highlight video from a friendly versus Chelsea from over the summer, where Jaurena comes on in the 25th minute, and unfortunately for my purposes, plays center back.
As that game would suggest, Jaurena is a more defensive-minded player than Sullivan, but she passes well enough (70th %tile pass completion %, 63rd %tile passes attempted among midfielders) and brings a significant defensive presence (99th %tile interceptions, 91st %tile blocks). A Jaurena-Sullivan-Sanchez midfield also would represent a composition I tend to like when done well. A defensive shield, a positionally responsible passing distributer, and a runner/dribbler. There are other ways to compose a solid three-player midfield, but this is a good one.
Another advantage is that this type of midfield mix can easily shift into a 4-2-3-1 formation with Sanchez moving into the number 10 hole if and when a situation calls for it. Depending on how the team plays, we could also see a team that defends in a 4-4-3 but attacks in a 4-2-3-1, perhaps with one more attacking fullback.
If Jaurena starts on the bench more often and Sullivan continues to play deeper, there are a few returning players who could slot in next to Sanchez.
Tori Huster is coming off a serious Achilles injury she suffered in the 2021 First Round playoff win against the NC Courage, so although I have no reason to believe she is not fit to start the season I have no idea what to expect. Also, even though Huster is primarily a midfielder, she spent time before her injury playing right back (with Kelley O’Hara shifting to left back) and I think that may be where she is needed most on this roster. But if she is healthy and doesn’t play significant minutes at right back, Huster would start in this more advanced spot if Sullivan does not. She’s the only player who has been with the Spirit for the team’s entire existence, and she can still ball.
If Huster is not fit to start the season or is fit or does end up playing in defense, there are a few players already on the roster in 2022 who could play in that connective role between Sullivan and Sanchez. Bayley Feist is a solid player, but one whose skills make her more suited to provide coverage for Sanchez (or played alongside Sanchez in matches where the objective is springing counter-attacks or the coaching staff is less concerned about the team’s ability to control tempo).
Feist rates in at least the 81st percentile among midfielders in total shots, progressive carries, successful take-ons, touches in the penalty area, and progressive passes received, but only in the 30th and 9th percentiles in passes attempted and progressive passes respectively.
Jordan Baggett is another player who has a similar but even more attacking profile. Rated in the 11th and 9th percentiles in passes attempted and progressive passes respectively, I would expect her to play in similar scenarios as I laid out for Feist.
Dorian Bailey is the returning player other than Huster I believe could fit this role nicely, while making the most of her skillset. She’s a tidy passer of the ball (81st %tile pass completion %) with at least roughly average passing volume (47th %tile) and progressive passing (45th %tile). She can progress the ball herself when needed (72nd %tile) but is not going to get caught out of position too often.
With two USWNT defenders in Kelley O’Hara and Sonnett plying their trades elsewhere this season, there were always going to be holes to plug in defense. But at left back, at least, Krikorian has done well leaning on his history as a national championship winning coach at Florida State to bring in a solution. Canadian international Gabrielle “Gabby” Carle (who somehow does not yet have an fbref.com page) won a national championship with Krikorian at FSU in 2019, and just finished her first professional season with Kristiandstads DFF in the Swedish Damallsvenskan and the Champions League. A defender who likes to get into the opposition penalty area, Carle is still a more than capable defender in isolation (65% duels won according to the highlight video linked above) and should slot in nicely on the left for the Spirit. Additionally, Carle’s two-way game is important because she can provide attacking width — allowing McKeown to make the inside attacking runs she likes without compromising the tactical structure.
Falls Church, VA native Anna Heilferty should provide cover for Carle and could play further forward in some situations.
I would expect Amber Brooks and Julia Roddar to continue to share time at right-sided center back next to Staab, and it will be interesting to see who ends up claiming most of the playing time here. Depending on how the midfield mix shakes out, Jaurena could play here some as well.
Lastly, I truly do think we’ll see Huster spend some time at right back. However, if she doesn’t — or at least when she isn’t — Camryn Biegalski provides Parsons a defensive-minded option that would lend the XI more balance with Carle presumably on the left.
Projected XI: GK Kingsbury, LB Carle, LCB Staab, RCB Brooks, RB Huster, MF Jaurena, MF Bailey, MF Sanchez, FW McKeown, FW Hatch, FW Rodman
I do have a couple questions that I won’t have the answers for until we see this team play, like how does the attack/defense balance shake out? Assuming Sanchez plays behind Rodman on the right, does Bailey or whoever plays behind McKeown play more conservatively, allowing Carle to bomb relentlessly up the left wing? Does Huster play right back or in that midfield spot? Is there a young player who takes a leap and changes the complexion of this team and this season? I don’t know. But we’re going to start to find out in about a month!
Thanks for sticking with this marathon of a piece to the end - it sort of got away from me. Between now and when we finally get to start answering those questions in the season opener against OL Reign, I’ll get a set of more in-depth player previews out, but I can’t wait until we can start watching this team play again.
Mike
stats from fbref unless attributed otherwise
images opensource from Popsync unless attributed otherwise